Trends over the past decades show that Lone Wolf (LW) terrorism is on the rise around the world. To reach a deeper understanding of this phenomenon and its possible future trajectory, the authors of this book, under the auspices of the Millennium Project's Israeli Node, conducted a Real-Time Delphi (RTD) study involving experts in security and related fields from around the world in November- December 2013. Results of the study were further discussed at an international conference in Pescara, Italy in June 2014 and in a NATO workshop in Jerusalem in November 2014. This book is largely based on the outcomes of those activities and extensive subsequent research. It presents the results of the RTD study and chapters that focus on key elements of the threats, strategies for coping, and detection of lone wolf terrorism in the future.We believe that a new kind of arms race is developing. On one hand, is the possibility of increasingly destructive weapons falling into the wrong hands, and on the other, the development of new methods of surveillance and pinpointing individuals with malintent. Will the methods of detection be adequate and timely enough to avoid catastrophe? It is often said that one of the major purposes of futures research is to provide lead-time to decision makers and the decision process; we have lead-time. We hope it will be used to reduce the threat we see in front of us.
Albert Einstein is supposed to have said, "The world will not be destroyed by those who do evil, but by those who watch and do nothing." We hope we have done something with this book.
The book contains about 200 pages, many examples of past attacks- some planned and thwarted and others completed, an examination of possible motives, targets, and possibly most important of all, the improving possibility of predetection of malintent.